The Baseball Diaspora

The Baseball Diaspora has moved!

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:42:18 -0500

After a fruitful and formative 6 months at tumblr, The Baseball Diaspora is moving on to its very own dot com! Please follow us over to our new home:

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Albert Pujols and Kenny Rogers

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 03:07:00 -0500

Fairly or unfairly, Kenny Rogers’ legacy boils down to two things: Kenny Rogers Roasters and “The Gambler.” Only one of those two things remains a recognizable landmark on the landscape of our collective American consciousness (although, improbably, Kenny Rogers Roasters lives on in Asia). No mere footnote of history, “The Gambler” inspired five - count ‘em 5! - TV movies (with rumors of a sixth), became one of the rare country standards to successfully cross over to hip hop and begat this:

(AP Photo/Derrik J. Lang)

Anything that can boast the level of influence that “The Gambler” can must contain some kernel of truth and wisdom that pertains to the modern world. And so “The Gambler” does. In particular, it teaches us an important lesson about the fallout from Albert Pujols’ signing with the Los Angeles Angels and provides a road map for moving on.

As with any break up, Albert Pujols’ separation from the St. Louis Cardinals was bound to result in some hurt feelings. After a largely measured and reasonable media response to the deal, Pujols angered some in St. Louis by insinuating that the Cardinals didn’t demonstrate the commitment to him that Arte Moreno and the Angels did. The St. Louis media took exception to Pujols’ comments and their implications. Albert’s wife Dee Dee accused the club of being disingenuous and the fans of being petty (she may have had a point on the latter). It has now been a week since Albert shocked the baseball world by leaving St. Louis and that seems to have been sufficient time for everyone involved to vent their frustrations with the way things turned out. Now it’s time to listen to Kenny Rogers.

The Lesson: “Every hand’s a winner, and every hand’s a loser…”

There are pluses and minuses, risks and rewards, best- and worst-case scenarios for every player in the Albert Pujols Exchange. Understanding that, there is still a likely outcome where everyone emerges from this a winner. Let’s take a look.

Albert Pujols

Best Case: Ideally, Albert continues to produce at his MVP/Hall of Fame level for 7-10 years instead of 3-5, doesn’t miss major time with injuries, adds additional World Series and MVP trophies to his case and becomes the historical face of the Angels franchise. Plus, the Cardinals fans get over him leaving and choose to remember all the good times they shared with Pujols and he receives a warm reception during infrequent interleague appearances back at Busch.

Worst Case: There is really only one true worst case: a positive PED test. Short of that, Cardinals fans never forgive him for leaving St. Louis and his legacy is diminished as he is remembered as more of a Reggie Jackson style gun-for-hire instead of a Cal Ripkin/Derek Jeter one-team icon.

Likely Outcome: Even if St. Louis turns its back on him, he fails to provide value over the length of the contract and he never wins another World Series or MVP, Pujols comes away with over $250 million dollars and goes into the Hall of Fame first ballot and potentially unanimously. I’d call that a win-win.

Los Angeles Angels

Best Case: Like Pujols’ best case, the Angels’ ideal would be to get value for most of the contract’s duration and add a few more World Series championships to their 2002 title.

Worst Case: Pujols declines after only a few years and injuries and performance issues result in his contract being onerous even to the cash-flush Angels for the back-half of the deal. Also, in spite of perennially competing, the Angels fail to add another Commissioner’s Trophy to their collection.

Likely Outcome: Even if Pujols only gives them 4-5 good years before his decline becomes more pronounced, the Angels signed the best player in the game and an instant icon. This is a move that will pay dividends for years to come as a new wave of fans takes interest in the team and future generations regard the Angels as more of a marquee franchise than when they were anchored by Scott Spiezio and Troy Glaus.

St. Louis Cardinals

Best Case: The Cardinals wisely redistribute the money they had earmarked for Pujols and by retaining other key members of their core and promoting from their impressive farm system the Redbirds continue to compete in the NL Central most of the rest of Pujols’ career. Fans continue to come to cheer the name on the front of the jersey and Pujols enters the Hall with an StL on his cap.

Worst Case: The loss of Pujols is too much to make up and the Cardinals, after their improbable World Series run, slip back into the mediocrity of 2007-2010. Pujols, meanwhile, wins World Series and MVPs in Anaheim while bringing the fans out to watch his milestone hits and HRs.

Likely Outcome: Given the emergence of young contributors David Freese and Allen Craig and the potential shown by young arms Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Tyrell Jenkins - not to mention the return of Adam Wainwright - the Cards look to be competitive in both the short and long term. Cardinals fans have also historically shown a commitment to team-over-individual player, so the fans shouldn’t stay away from Busch Stadium in droves in the long run, even if attendance takes a minor hit next season with Albert gone.

St. Louis Fans

Best Case: The Cardinals get lucky again and draft another future Hall of Famer in the late rounds. A World Series title defense and the exciting young talent coming up through the system refocuses the fanbase and the sting of losing Pujols fades.

Worst Case: The 1990’s happen all over again: a dearth of players the fans can truly latch onto (apologies to Ray Lankford, Bernard Gilkey, Brian Jordan, Todd Zeile, et al) and a failure to compete year-in and year-out leads to a decline in fan interest.

Likely Outcome: If nothing else, the Cardinals’ whiff on Pujols gives them the flexibility to extend guys like Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina after next season. While Cardinals fans will miss Pujols, they would also have missed Yadi, Waino and their other favorites who became too expensive with Pujols dominating such a significant chunk of the payroll. The team’s core, minus Albert, remains intact and there are exciting prospects on the horizon, too. With a healthy payroll and a division that remains one of baseball’s weakest, the Cardinals look to contend for the foreseeable future.

So see, it’s not a zero sum game. Even if things don’t work out perfectly, there is still plenty of opportunity for everyone to come out ahead. Time for Kenny to wrap it up for us.

Moving On: “You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em…”

This is one of those fold ‘em times, everybody. One week was plenty for trading barbs in the press. I think I speak for a lot of Cardinals, Angels and baseball fans when I say I am ready to move on to analyzing the Rafael Furcal and Skip Schumaker deals, seeing how the Rangers respond to the Angels’ additions of Pujols and C. J. Wilson and following the Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish developments.

It’s episode 2 of The Baseball Diaspora Podcast. Brock...

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 20:00:00 -0500

It’s episode 2 of The Baseball Diaspora Podcast. Brock and Dan break down baseball’s Winter Meetings, discussing:

- Albert Pujols leaving the Cardinals for the Angels

- The A’s kicking off their fire sale by trading Trevor Cahill

- How the Marlins’ moves last week position them to contend in the NL East

- How the Giants failed to significantly upgrade their roster for 2012

- Ryan Braun’s positive PED test

2011 World Series Video #3: The Celebration. And yes, that is...

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:18:00 -0500

2011 World Series Video #3: The Celebration. And yes, that is my distinctive caterwaul you hear in the foreground. You’re welcome.

2011 World Series Video #2: Rally Towels. “A new bizarre...

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 05:04:00 -0500

2011 World Series Video #2: Rally Towels. “A new bizarre twist in this World Series.” From Marc Towler’s mouth to your ears.

Behold! The inaugural Baseball Diaspora Podcast. Recorded on...

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 01:18:00 -0500

Behold! The inaugural Baseball Diaspora Podcast. Recorded on Sunday, 11/20/2011, The Baseball Diaspora Podcast #1 features Brock and Dan breaking down the Marlins’ new look and new identity and whether the Miami Marlins can generate the interest and fan support that the Florida Marlins never did. The boys go on to discuss the new collective bargaining agreement and the big changes it spells for baseball.

Look for The Baseball Diaspora Podcast on iTunes in the near future (I’ll make an announcement), but for now, the 24-hour sports news cycle waits for no man and I wanted to get this up as soon as possible. Please enjoy the inaugural podcast on our temporary host, the fabulously intuitive Sound Cloud.

2011 World Series Video #1: Go Nuts, Rally Squirrel, Go Nuts.

Sun, 20 Nov 2011 20:49:00 -0500

2011 World Series Video #1: Go Nuts, Rally Squirrel, Go Nuts.

The World Series in Pictures

Sun, 20 Nov 2011 20:45:11 -0500

Greetings friends and readers. I come to you with an overdue recounting of my trip to Game 7 of the 2011 World Series. An opportunity such as this carries with it a responsibility to share the experience in a timely fashion with those who have never had the good fortune of seeing their team play in and win Game 7 of a World Series. In that sense, I failed miserably and I apologize. In fairness, though, I did bring you the sights, sounds and spectacle of Game 7 before the Winter Meetings.

My apology out of the way, let’s go to the tape. For your viewing pleasure…Game 7 of the 2011 World Series!

Although procuring night-before transportation to St. Louis was no easy task, my dad and I arrived shortly before the game got under way, decked out in all of our Cardinal finery.

Cardinal fans showed up en masse whether they had tickets or not. Many of the unticketed came not looking to get in, but rather just to be a part of the Game 7 scene. From our seats down the 3rd baseline, we could see over the center field wall where thousands in red gathered outside Busch Stadium to share in the experience.

The Rally Squirrel was there, but I don’t think his presence was required. The energy in the stadium before first pitch was a confident excitement. After you have been down to your last strike twice in two innings the way the Cardinals were in Game 6, how could they lose?

The crowd came to celebrate and, after taking an early lead, could hardly contain its excitement. With young favorites David Freese and Allen Craig leading the club both offensively (Freese’s 2-run double in the bottom of the 1st tied the game and Craig’s solo HR in the 3rd put the Cards ahead to stay) and with the glove (Freese’s catch on a foul ball at the 3rd base dugout and Craig’s excellent grab in LF were both big plays), the fans were intoxicated.

As the innings passed and the Cardinal lead grew, the crowd grew increasingly certain that, good team that they were, the Rangers had spent all of their bullets in Game 6 the night before. After the Cardinals pushed the score to 6-2 on an RBI single by Yadier Molina in the 7th, it was just an exercise in playing out the final innings. Everyone in the park knew the outcome. When David Murphy flied out to Allen Craig for the final out, the anticipated celebration ensued:

My dad called my mom to conference her in to the celebration:

And I was so happy, I couldn’t focus:

Ba dum bum, chhhh!

We stuck around for the trophy presentation, the MVP announcement and the interviews, then made our way out. After fighting the crowds to grab my sister Alicia a Rally Squirrel rally towel, we hit the streets. St. Louis was ecstatic:

The police were there, but unlike with the Occupy movement, they kept their cool and enjoyed the victory along with everyone else:

We left town to head up to my uncle Gary’s, but not before getting stuck in traffic. As we crawled along trying to get ourselves pointed against traffic so that we could cut around the congestion, we drank in the honking, cheering and revelry of the jubilant city of St. Louis.

A week after the confetti from the Game 7 celebration and the World Series parade that Sunday had settled and been swept away, I celebrated again with the arrival of my World Series gear (which I really want to call swag, for some reason, even though I know that is an inappropriate use of the term):

I predicted before the World Series began, that “11 in ‘11” would become a major slogan if the Cardinals won the NL Pennant. That didn’t turn out to be the case. In fact, the only place I saw that phrase printed was on signs given out to promote a local network whose channel number is 11, but it all worked out. The Baseball Diaspora retains the title as the number one proponent of “11 in ‘11” and I did manage to find this t-shirt that references the 11th title (not once, but twice!) and pays tribute to the Cardinals’ World Series history at the same time.

I have had a difficult time explaining to friends and family just what the experiences of Game 7 and a World Series Championship were like in person. The Cardinals’ inclusion in the playoffs was such a surprise in itself that each subsequent victory and advancement just ratcheted up the incredibility of the team’s run. After the roller coaster of a literally unbelievable Game 6, Game 7 was a more even high. But the experience itself was unforgettable. To be in the park for a Game 7 World Series victory by itself was unlike anything I have ever been a part of, but to share that moment with my dad…for once I am at a loss for words.

I will never forget 2006. It was the first Cardinals World Series Championship that I could remember and evoked a different set of emotions. But 2011 is the one I will always remember first. The improbable playoff berth, Carpenter’s transcendence in Game 5 of the NLDS, Freese’s emergence and the triumph of offense and bullpen in the NLCS, Allen Craig’s late-game heroics in the World Series, Pujols’ three HR game in Game 3, bullpen phone-gate in Game 5 and the best game I have ever seen in Game 6, any one of these would have been a great story on its own. The fact that they all comprise part of the same unlikely narrative makes them each all the more memorable. For my dad and I, both at our first World Series game, to watch the team we love win the first Game 7 in a decade and clinch the team’s 11th championship, all in front of the Cardinal faithful and the grateful city of St. Louis was a perfect ending to a perfect postseason.

Unbelievable

Fri, 28 Oct 2011 02:38:12 -0400

Are you kidding me? Are. you. kidding. me?

If ever a single game formed such a perfect microcosm of a team’s season, Game 6 of the 2011 World Series was that game. Like the first five months of the regular season, the Cardinals stayed competitive through the first two thirds of tonight’s game. Never in a position of control, they nevertheless remained in contention in spite of unforgivable defensive miscues and shaky pitching. When Texas hung 3 runs on Lance Lynn, one of the Cardinals’ best relief arms during the postseason, it seemed that the Cardinals would come up just short. But then, as they did down the stretch, the Cardinals just kept finding ways to stave off elimination. After disheartening losses in late September to the Mets and Astros, the Cardinals forged ahead and managed to outlast the Braves on the season’s final day. In the 8th and the 9th, the Cardinals put runners on base and cashed in as they could not do in Game 5, tying the game and sending it into extra innings. In the top of the 10th, Josh Hamilton - who has contributed little in this World Series due to injuries - hit a crushing 2-run HR that seemed to be the last straw. It felt like being down 4-0 against Cliff Lee in Game 2 of the NLDS - insurmountable - but again the Cards rallied. Coming up with another two runs of their own in the bottom of the frame, St. Louis sent the game into the 11th just when it looked like their season was over. In the bottom of the 11th, hometown kid David Freese hit a walk-off HR and the Cardinals did what they have done for two straight months now - they won.

Like this season, which I gave up on repeatedly, I gave up on this game at least three times. When the Rangers went back-to-back off Lance Lynn and later added a third run in the top of the 7th, I was sure it was over. Again in the bottom of the 9th, with the Cardinals down to their final out, I doubted. After an incredible 2-run triple from Freese tied the game in the bottom of the 9th, my faith was crushed again when Hamilton immediately put the Rangers back up in the top of the 10th. No matter how often I surrendered, though, the Cardinals never did. Not this season and not this World Series.

I have no idea what will happen tomorrow. If this series has taught us anything it is that momentum does not exist. A loss like this looks tough to shake off, but the Rangers could come out tomorrow like they did in Games 2 and 4 and finally claim their first title. The Cardinals could follow the 1985 Kansas City Royals, the 1986 New York Mets and the 2003 Florida Marlins (against the Cubs in the NLCS) and win their 11th World Series in convincing fashion after an unthinkable turnaround in Game 6. We could have another pitched battle like most of this series, or a blowout like Game 3. I just don’t know. All I know is that I couldn’t be happier with the Cardinals for continuing to win no matter how we doubted. I will be in the stands with my dad for the first Game 7 in nearly a decade - a potential classic - and I can’t wait to share it with my fellow Cardinals fans, with our team, and with all of you.

A Familiar Position

Thu, 27 Oct 2011 03:08:53 -0400

I suppose one day when I have years of predictions under my belt I may have built up a tolerance to the intoxicating effects of my own prognostication abilities. But in year one, I fell hard for my own prescience. I was on a real roll. Let’s go to the tape:

NLCS

Game 3 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 3 result: Cardinals win

Game 4 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 4 result: Brewers win

Game 5 prediction: Brewers win; Game 5 result: Cardinals win

Game 6 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 6 result: Cardinals win

NLCS series prediction: Cardinals in 6; result: Cardinals in 6

World Series

Game 1 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 1 result: Cardinals win

Game 3 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 3 result: Cardinals win

Game 4 prediction: Rangers win; Game 4 result: Rangers win

Game 5 prediction: Cardinals win; Game 5 result: Rangers win

Series prediction: Cardinals in 6; result: ??? (but not Cards in 6)

Heading into the bottom of the sixth inning of Game 5 - with the Cardinals up 2-1 - I was heading toward a convincing 7-2 record in my postseason predictions with the potential for the Cards to close out the series back in St. Louis in Game 6 to leave me with a 9-2 final tally. It would’ve been resounding. Then came the rest of Game 5. That’s when the wheels fell off.

Between Bullpengate and a cascade of ill-conceived intentional walks, sacrifice bunts and hit-and-run plays, the Cardinals turned a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 deficit. An offense that scored 16 runs just two days before went 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and squandered 9 walks - 4 of them intentional - failing to score another run and leaving the 4-2 score intact.

And just like that, my 7-2 with the potential for 9-2 dropped to a much more modest 6-4. I suppose I could still pick the remaining game(s) and repick the series, give myself a shot at 8-4 or 9-4 but it would be a hollow victory. From what I have observed, sticking with one’s picks is the honorable thing to do. When one’s picks become mathematically impossible, though - as the Cardinals winning in 6 has now become - the prognosticator becomes a wandering Ronin, beholden to no man and free to rewrite history. With that new found freedom, I will nevertheless double-down. Under my Cardinals in 6 scenario, the Cardinals would have won Game 6. They may no longer be able to win in 6, but they are very capable of winning Game 6.

The Cardinals have been up against this wall before. On the brink of elimination and coming off a difficult loss is a familiar position for the Cardinals and one they have handled well down the stretch.

A team that faced elimination the entire month of September and more than once was left for dead, this is the sort of challenge this team has thrived on. In two elimination games against the presumptive NL Champion Phillies in the Division Series, the Cardinals came from behind against Roy Oswalt in Game 4 and protected a 1 run lead for 9 innings against Roy Halladay and the Phillies in Game 5.

Repeatedly after heartbreaking losses in which they gave up early leads, the Cardinals have rebounded to stay alive. After a late-season gut-punch where the bullpen blew a 4-run lead to the Mets in the 9th inning to seemingly seal the Cardinals’ fate, the team responded by going 4-2 in their final two series to sneak into the playoffs. After a demoralizing Game 1 loss in the NLDS where a 5-run Philadelphia 6th erased the Cardinals’ lead en route to a crushing 11-6 loss, the Cardinals rebounded to beat Cliff Lee the next night in come-from-behind fashion and even the series. After another deflating Game 1 - this time a 6-run Milwaukee 5th did the Cardinals in - the Cardinals came back to win the next two games to take the series lead.

Their luck could have run out this time. Game 5 found the typically high-powered offense frustratingly impotent. Game 5 saw the master of bullpen overmanagement, Tony La Russa somehow miss on the the most important match-up of the game. No game all season left quite the sinking feeling that Game 5 did. Still, I think the Cards have one last rebound in them. Will it be enough to lift the trohpy? I don’t know. But it will be good enough to force the first Game 7 since 2002.

Colby Lewis pitched very well in Game 2 in St. Louis and has pitched considerably better on the road this season than in Arlington (3.43 ERA to 5.54). It is Jaime Garcia, though, who stands to benefit more from the extra day of rest brought on by the weather today. Lewis has actually pitched fewer innings than he pitched last season (218.2 so far compared to 227.1 in 2010, both including postseason), so fatigue should be less of an issue for him. Garcia, on the other hand has already thrown more than 50 innings more than he did last year (217.1 in 2011 to 163.1 last year). On extra rest, Garcia has thrown his two best postseason outings - Game 3 of the NLDS and Game 2 of the World Series.

I anticipate another low-scoring affair similar to Game 2, but this time I expect the Cardinals - particularly Tony La Russa - to learn from past mistakes and not let Game 6 slip away the way Game 2 and Game 5 (and to a certain extent Game 4) did. That was the story of the NLCS. After getting burned in the NLDS by leaving Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia in too long La Russa entered the Milwaukee series still not having learned his lesson. After Garcia imploded in Game 1 though, La Russa corrected and began to call on his bullpen at the first sign of trouble. It worked marvelously for the rest of the NLCS and the Cardinals advanced.

In the World Series the problem has been less the starting pitching, which has been serviceable in all but Game 3, and more the bullpen. Whereas La Russa’s every bullpen decision in the NLCS worked out, in the World Series his moves have more often backfired than not. In Game 2 after his closer got in a bit of trouble, La Russa removed him for Arthur Rhodes and the Cardinals lost. In Game 4, La Russa removed a struggling Edwin Jackson for Mitchell Boggs, who served up a 3-run HR on the first pitch he threw to turn a 1-run deficit into a 4-run hole. In Game 5, the unfathomable bullpen decisions of the 8th inning - whether the result of crowd-noise, miscommunication or a mental lapse - put the Cardinals behind for good and gave the Rangers a series lead. In Thursday’s Game 6 and (if necessary) Friday’s Game 7, La Russa must again correct and rediscover his feel for his bullpen if the Cardinals hope to come back to win this series.

If Tony and the Cardinals can scratch out a win tomorrow, the extra day of rest factors in again, but it is uncertain who precisely it favors. Derek Holland would be available on full rest (the Rangers insist they will start Harrison, but in a Game 7 Holland would presumably be available at the first sign of trouble). His last start was a revelation, but he struggled mightily in two ALCS starts, so exactly what the Rangers can expect from him is unclear. The extra day also allows the Cardinals to start Chris Carpenter on 3 days rest. His last start on short rest did not end well (although the Cardinals got the win) and it is difficult to predict how he will perform in a potential Game 7. Still, Carpenter believes he learned valuable lessons about pitching on short rest in the NLDS and that if he gets another opportunity, he will use a different (and hopefully more effective) approach. Regardless, I would feel more comfortable with Carpenter on short rest than Lohse, Westbrook or Jackson on regular rest. Memories of his Game 5 in Philadelphia remain fresh and although his subsequent outings have not lived up to that transcendence, they have been solid, with the Cardinals winning every one but Monday night’s Game 5.

As a Cardinal fan you couldn’t ask for much more than Carpenter-Holland in a Game 7…except maybe a ticket to that game and another World Series trophy. If Garcia, La Russa and the Cardinals offense can just relocate that winning formula tomorrow night, my dad and I will get the first two - a potentially classic Game 7 with us in attendance - and take our chances on the third.

Here’s hoping I have at least one more correct prediction in me for 2011.

I Stand Corrected

Sun, 23 Oct 2011 02:55:00 -0400

To quote myself from earlier today:

“…it may be that we have seen the last 15-5 or 12-6 score this postseason.”

I was wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

After a return to strong starting pitching in Games 1 and 2, the St. Louis and Texas offenses erupted as many had predicted in Game 3 Saturday night. In a game reminiscent of Game 6 of the NLCS, it seemed in the early innings that no lead would last. Cardinal leads of 5-0 and 8-3 each quickly evaporated and I told my best friend Doug on the phone that the Cardinals needed another 8 runs if they hoped to win this ballgame. Only when Albert Pujols hit the first of his three home runs - a 3-run shot in the top of the 6th - to put the Cards up 11-6 did the lead begin to feel somewhat safe. Over the final four innings, the Cards got “another 8 runs” and won by the final of 16-7 - incontrovertible evidence that we had not, in fact, seen the last high-scoring game of the 2011 playoffs prior to tonight.

Whether they win by one or they win by nine, a win is a win and the Cardinals emphatically took Game 3. Still, you may now count me a believer in the Arlington effect. The next two games will be won with bats just the same as this one. I think the series see-saws back even tomorrow night with the Rangers gaining the upper hand against Edwin Jackson (who relies much more heavily on his fastball than any of the other Cardinals starters). In Game 5 on Monday I think Carpenter again finds a way to limit the Texas offense and offer relief to the St. Louis bullpen while the offense again touches up C.J. Wilson enough to head back to St. Louis up 3-2.

Let's All Take a Deep Breath

Sat, 22 Oct 2011 19:00:17 -0400

Thursday night witnessed a great deal of hyperventilation following the Texas Rangers’ impressive come-from-behind victory against a St. Louis bullpen that has been mostly stellar this postseason. You had journalists calling for the heads of Albert Pujols and -to a lesser extent - Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Yadier Molina for ducking out before speaking to the media. You had Pujols refusing to apologize for leaving early. You had MLB.com asking this absurd question:

You even had the normally even-keeled Jayson Stark declaring that the series momentum had instantly and drastically shifted to the Rangers in Game 2’s ninth inning.

Let’s just calm down a minute everybody. Take a deep breath. I realize that the 24/7 sports media cycle is a hungry beast and when legitimate, insightful analysis has been exhausted, writers and commentators must turn to increasingly dubious angles and storylines to feed it. That being said, let’s not lose the real storyline of the first two games of this World Series in the din.

Through two games (a criminally small sample size, sure) what I have seen is a remarkably even series. Through Game 2, the Cardinals offense has produced the following offensive numbers:

12 for 59 (.203) with 2 extra-base hits and 15 total bases

The Rangers offense, meanwhile, has gone:

11 for 59 (.186) with 2 extra-base hits and 15 total bases

Neither team has been particularly effective with runners in scoring position (RISP) - the Cardinals going 3 for 14 and the Rangers 1 for 7 - and neither has relied heavily on the running game. The Rangers have stolen a single base in two tries, while the Cardinals have yet to attempt a steal. The Cardinals have walked more (10 to 3) and struck out less (11 to 16) than the Rangers, but generally these two offenses have performed similarly in each scoring 4 runs over two games.

Similarly, the team pitching and defense has been pretty congruent between the two World Series contenders. Texas’ starters in Games 1 and 2 have pitched a combined 12.1 innings, allowing 8 hits and 4 earned runs while walking 8 and striking out 8. St. Louis’ starters lasted 13 innings, allowing 8 hits, 2 earned runs with 3 walks and 11 strikeouts. As for the bullpens, Texas’ pitched 4.2 innings in the first two games, allowing 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. The St. Louis ‘pen, in spite of giving up the lead in Game 2, has put up a similar line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Each team;s defense has committed 1 error (one of them probably more significant than the other) and Texas has turned 3 double plays to St. Louis’ 2.

A series that was expected to follow the 2011 postseason’s trend of high-scoring contests where starting pitching factored little into the outcome has seen runs scored in only 5 of 35 half-innings. After two League Championship Series that saw only a single Cardinal or Ranger starter complete the 6th inning, only one of four starters in the World Series has failed to complete the 6th (C.J. Wilson was one out shy in Game 1 for Texas). The two League Championship Series saw an average of over 11 total runs per game scored. The World Series, in contrast, has featured an average of 4 combined runs per game. The two LCS’s featured 2 out of 12 games decided by one run (and only 5 of 12 decided by 3 or less). In the World Series, each game so far has been decided by a single run.

This may not have (so far) been the series that many predicted it would be, with two deep lineups pounding two struggling starting rotations until the two steady bullpens showed up to limit the damage. This may not be the series that Fox and MLB and casual baseball fans had hoped for, with the ball flying out of the ballpark and offensive sparks flying. But so far it has proven to be an evenly-matched series and the best-case for serious baseball fans. Watching what were two capable starting staffs in the regular season pitch to their skill level is exciting. Watching two deep and high-powered offenses scratch for every run is exhilarating. Watching two bullpens that have pitched well down the stretch work to preserve razor-thin leads is nerve-wracking. Even watching two managers who have been known to outsmart themselves on occasion makes for appointment television in the pressure-cooker of the final series of the baseball season.

The sports media hydra is already at it again, predicting the spike in runs that we will see when the series shifts to Arlington. As if what we have gotten through two games is insufficient. They may even be right. The Tigers and Rangers scored 35 runs in Texas as opposed to 29 in Detroit. Still, Comerica is a known pitcher’s park while Busch Stadium in St. Louis is much closer to neutral. If 8 total runs in two games there is all these teams could muster, it may be that we have seen the last 15-5 or 12-6 score this postseason. And that is just fine with me. If these two teams continue to play such evenly-matched and hard fought games, that only increases the drama. The closer-matched the series turns out to be, the more likely we are to get an elusive Game 7 for the first time since 2002. So let’s just all take a deep breath and enjoy the series playing out before us.

I know I will. It seems that his temporary hysteria has cleared and that Jayson Stark will, as well. The Cards have won 2 games apiece on the road in Philadelphia and Milwaukee thus far this postseason. I don’t see any reason why they can’t win two in Arlington, starting with tonight’s Game 3, and still close it out in 6.

Picking the World Series

Wed, 19 Oct 2011 04:27:37 -0400

As if my credibility as an unbiased prognosticator wasn’t already shot after my (correct) but decidedly homer pick of the Cardinals in 6 over the Brewers in the NLCS, now a new obstacle to objectivity has been thrown in my way.

A little background. Some years ago I came across an ad for the MLB Extra Bases credit card. The card, in contrast to thousands of other themed credit cards, offered two things of value to a die-hard baseball fan like me. Number one, it offered me the chance to bear my colors in the course of every financial transaction, major or minor, that I decided to put on a credit card. This has turned out not to be the clear plus it appeared to be at the time, but that is a story for another day. Number two, it offered me baseball-specific rewards.

When I signed up for the card, travel-based rewards had a bad reputation, so why not get baseball-related perks? At the outset, I anticipated tickets, hats, jerseys, other gear, possibly some memorabilia. Nice stuff, to be sure, but essentially small potatoes. Then I discovered the “Experiences” section of the rewards catalog. All-Star Games, League Division and Championship Series and Fall Classics, now we were talking! I resisted the urge to squander my precious points on Bob Gibson autographs or authentic jerseys, hoarding them instead for a much grander prize.

At first, that was the 2009 All-Star Game in St. Louis. I really wanted that one, but I was ever so short on points, so that opportunity passed me by. Since mid-summer 2009, those points have just been sitting there - accruing and waiting. When the Cardinals outlasted the Phillies to advance to the NLCS, I began to get excited. If the Cardinals could simply beat the Brewers, I could finally unleash my cache of points on the reward for which they had been destined: the World Series. I got as much information as I could and waited for the Cards to clinch. I had visions of Game 1, Game 2 or both. Then, through a combination of restrictions, incompetent customer service, bad information and a couple missteps on my part (again - a story for another day), I ended up with two tickets to Game 7…if necessary.

So now not only do I find it nearly impossible to pick against the Cardinals, but it is likewise practically fruitless to try to talk myself into fewer than seven games. I have a very large dog in this fight. If the series goes seven, I get to go to the first Game 7 since 2002. Six or less, I get my reward points back and it’s wait until next year. I have gone so far as to entertain the heretical debate of whether it would be worth it for the Cardinals to lose if they ultimately did so in Game 7…with me in attendance. The loyal fan in me won out and I will sacrifice for another trophy if it comes to that.

With all of my cards now on the table, it’s time to make my World Series prediction in earnest.

No matter how I try, I cannot get around picking the Cardinals to ultimately prevail. The Rangers appear to be the near unanimous favorite, but I don’t care. There has been a good deal of discussion about their deep lineup, their strong bullpen, their severe home-field advantage in Arlington. The Cardinals, though, just defeated a team with a very similar M.O. in the NLCS and did it rather handily.

While Texas was tied for the second best home record this season at 52-29, Milwaukee had the best at 57-24. One of the teams with whom Texas tied for second-best home record was the Philadelphia Phillies. The Cardinals beat both Philly and Milwaukee in these playoffs with each holding home-field. St. Louis will have home-field in the World Series. What’s more, Miller Park played (at least in the NLCS) much like the Ballpark in Arlington is reputed to play, with balls flying out of the ballpark and a total of 48 runs scored in three games during the NLCS. That’s 16 runs combined per game. The Ballpark featured 35 runs scored in three games, good for just under 12 per game. Did I mention that the Cardinals went 2-1 at Miller in the NLCS and clenched the series there?

Granted, the Rangers’ lineup is deeper and their bullpen stronger than the Brewers’ was this season. They also both performed better than their Brewers counterparts in the LCS. The Rangers also played in the tougher league. But their strengths are in many ways the same as those cited by the vocal majority who picked the Brewers to best the Cardinals in the NLCS.

And much like they matched up well against the Brewers, the Cardinals - to my way of thinking - match up well with the Rangers. Here is how:

- Both teams have good-not-great starting pitching that has struggled in the postseason. Chris Carpenter is the best of the bunch, however, giving the Cardinals the slightest of edges.

- Both teams have deep, high-powered offenses that have absolutely raked in October so far. The Rangers have more established hitters while the Cardinals have relied on key contributions from young players like David Freese, Jon Jay and Allen Craig. In addition, most of the current Rangers were just in the World Series a year ago. But the Cardinals are not short on postseason experience in their lineup, either. Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman are each playing in their second World Series, while Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are each playing in their third. When the series shifts to Texas and Allen Craig gets into the lineup for three straight games, the Cardinals lineup becomes very reminiscent of an AL lineup and nearly as deep - if not as deep - as that of the Rangers. This one is even.

- Both teams have strong, effective bullpens. One of the questions that analysts have been asking is can the Cardinals ‘pen keep it up? With Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara (who has struggled thus far in the postseason) and Neftali Feliz, the Rangers bullpen is a known commodity. The Cardinals ‘pen, while overpowering down the stretch and throughout the postseason, is still not fully-vetted. The Rangers have the edge here, but the Cardinals ‘pen seems to really have come together over the past month and I see no reason they can’t keep up their stellar performance even given their heavy postseason workload.

- Both teams have entertaining managers, in very different ways. Ronnie Wash has an infectious energy and has been the emotional leader of his team. La Russa, meanwhile is one of the most controversial figures in the game and his grating competitiveness and sparring matches with the press are appointment television. Washington came out of last October somewhat exposed for questionable bullpen management and in-game decisions. Tony La Russa, though his arrogance is off-putting to many (including Cardinals fans) has long been recognized as a strong in-game manager so long as he doesn’t fall prey to overmanaging. The 2011 postseason has seen some of his finest managing in recent years and as long as he keeps the hook quick (particularly with Jaime Garcia), he should keep the advantage in this category.

- Both teams are on a roll. From that mythical date of August 25th, when the Cardinals were 10.5 games back in the Wild Card, St. Louis went 22-9 to close the regular season. Texas went a nearly identical 22-8 to hold onto the AL West title. Texas is 7-3 in the postseason thus far, while St. Louis is 7-4. Another push.

Based on these factors, this series appears a lot closer to me than many are giving it credit for. And although the Rangers may be the better team overall, the way in which the Cardinals have reached the World Series makes it difficult for me to believe they won’t continue to defy the odds. Some have pointed to the Colorado Rockies - that hottest of hot stretch teams - that fizzled in the 2007 World Series and was swept by the Red Sox as a cautionary tale. This Cardinals team just doesn’t have that same feel. That ‘07 Rockies team swept through the NLDS and NLCS before getting swept themselves by Boston in the Series. The ‘11 Cardinals have had to play nearly every postseason game and have taken the losses with the wins to be where they are today. I believe they have four more wins in them.

I do not, however, believe they have 3 more losses. Perhaps it is the fact it has been so long since we have seen a Game 7, but I just cannot picture this series going more than six. As much as I want to be there in Busch Stadium for a Game 7 for the ages, I think it’s next year for me. I am going with the same call as the NLCS: Cards in 6 (take that, Nolan Ryan!). I hope I’m right on the first part, but wrong on the second.

As for Game 1, I see Chris Carpenter’s every-other-start-a-classic producing an outing more in line with Game 162 and Game 5 of the NLDS (and C.J. Wilson’s every-postseason-start-a-dud trend holding up, as well). Game 1 to the Redbirds.

The Chief Justice

Wed, 19 Oct 2011 01:58:42 -0400

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has given Cardinals outfielder Jon Jay a nickname. “The Federalist.” I don’t know when this started, but I am going to have to take exception.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Bernie Miklasz. He’s a good writer and a fair journalist. He offers good insight and perspective on the Cardinals and doesn’t shy away from criticizing the owners, the front office, the manager or the players when the situation calls for it. What’s more, I like that he made the connection between Jon Jay, Cardinal outfielder and John Jay, founding father. But seriously, The Federalist?

When the term federalist gets bandied about John Jay is not the first name that comes to mind. That would be Alexander Hamilton. John Jay is not the second name that comes to mind, either. That spot belongs to James Madison. John Jay is not even the third name I would associate with federalism, because until Miklasz started calling Jay The Federalist, my list of federalists stopped after two. If a historical figure is the third most prominent federalist and your name is (roughly) the same as his, nicknaming you The Federalist seems incongruent and inappropriate.

What happens, for example, when a kid named Alexander Hamilton comes up as a dominant starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven years? Are we all of a sudden going to have two players nicknamed The Federalist? Or is poor Hamilton - the pitcher, not the guy who’s face can be found on your standard-issue American sawbuck - going to be relegated to being called “Mortally Wounded by Aaron Burr?”

There is a solution, though. John Jay may not be the first name that comes to mind when federalism, the Federalist Papers or the Federalist Party come up in casual conversation, but his is the first (and only) name that comes to mind when the conversation turns to the subject of “first Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court.” Perhaps, as an attorney, I’m biased but John Jay will always be the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court before all else as far as I’m concerned. Therefore, much as George Washington offered John Jay the position of Chief Justice (after Jay declined the post of Secretary of State), I offer Jon Jay the nickname “The Chief Justice.”

Whether you believe it or not, I have been calling Jon Jay The Chief Justice in my head since long before I came across The Federalist in Miklasz’s columns. Even if I hadn’t, though, I would still prefer The Chief Justice. It has that combination of power and discretion that just drives the ladies wild. Furthermore, it embodies the essence of why we remember John Jay to this day. There were a number of federalists floating around in 1788. There have been a number of governors of New York (the position Jay held after Chief Justice). There can, however, only ever be one first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

This court has ruled. Chief Justice it is.

So no disrespect to Bernie, but Jon Jay is the Chief Justice

11 in '11

Sun, 16 Oct 2011 17:24:41 -0400

If the St. Louis Cardinals manage to win the 2011 NLCS - whether today or tomorrow - and advance to the World Series, remember that you heard it here first: 11 in ‘11. If the Cardinals do indeed advance, they will be going for their eleventh World Series title. I expect some clever marketing or entrepreneurial mind to capitalize on the numeric coincidence and slap some version of the phrase on t-shirts, rally towels, signs and posters. Whether it comes from within the organization, from MLB or Fox or from some enterprising Joe or Jane Cardinal Fan out there, I expect to see it. In fact, I am going to be disappointed if I don’t. It has a ring to it, doesn’t it: 11 in ‘11. I do not expect any royalties or even recognition from whoever ultimately trots out the phrase - again, if the Cardinals advance - I just wanted to get it out there before it runs down the Rally Squirrel and Torty Craig as the new buzzword of the 2011 postseason.

Getting back to the present, it’s time to preview tonight’s Game 6. Although my picks ended up backward on Games 4 and 5, the end result was the same: Cards up 3-2 heading back to Milwaukee. Which means that my Cards in 6 prediction still has a shot. As always, anything can happen - particularly in Miller Park - but I’m sticking with my original call. As such, I will save the Game 7 preview for later (hopefully never). Here we go:

Game 6: Marcum vs. Jackson

During Friday’s broadcast, looking ahead to Game 6, the announcing team suggested that Shaun Marcum might be able to rebound the way Randy Wolf did in Game 4 to pitch the way he did for most of the regular season. There is no reason that can’t happen, but there are a couple factors that work against it:

1) Marcum vs. Wolf: After their respective meltdowns in the NLDS, Marcum and Wolf were discussed in tandem. They both struggled down the stretch, they both might have been out of gas. But a closer look at their work over the last month and a half tells a different story: one of these Brewer’s starters’ struggles has been more pronounced by far. Spoiler alert: small sample-sizes ahead.

Both Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf made five starts in September. Both have made two starts in the postseason, one each in the NLDS and NLCS. Neither has pitched his best in September or October. Their shortcomings, however, vary in terms of degree. In seven September/October starts, Wolf went 3-2 with a 5.21 ERA in 43.2 innings, a 2.42 K/BB rate and 5 HR allowed. Marcum, meanwhile, went 2-4 with a 6.87 ERA in 39.3 innings, a 2.08 K/BB rate and 6 HR allowed in his own seven September/October starts.

Marcum’s drop-off was more precipitous, as well. Marcum’s September ERA was his worst monthly ERA by more than a run (5.17 to 4.03 in June), while Wolf’s September ERA was not his worst of the season (4.28 compared to 4.82 in May) and was relatively in line with what he posted in August (4.05). Marcum’s September ERA was nearly a run higher than Wolf’s and his game log from September and October is much more fraught with bad outings than Wolf’s.

Looking at individual game performances, Marcum has performed poorly on a more consistent basis than Wolf in September and October. The quality start stat has been criticized and is far from the best way to analyze pitcher performance, but here it is illustrative. In his last seven starts, Wolf actually had four quality starts - two against the Cardinals, one against the Phillies and one against the Reds in Cincinnati. Marcum, in his last seven, had two quality starts - against the Cubs and the Astros, two of the worst teams in the National League (San Diego tied with Chicago for the second-worst record). Wolf allowed 5 or more runs twice in his last seven starts. Marcum allowed 5 or more runs in five of seven. Wolf went more than five innings in all but one of his last seven starts (his 3-inning stinker in the NLDS the only exception). Marcum went more than five innings in only three of his last seven.

Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf had similar seasons in many ways and when they both came up short in the NLDS, it must have been tempting to draw more of a parallel than there truly was in terms of each pitcher’s struggles down the stretch. Whereas Wolf has pitched somewhat effectively down the stretch with the occasional bad outing, Marcum has all but collapsed since September began.

2) Marcum at Home: Much has been made in this space about the home-road splits of the Milwaukee starting staff. Gallardo, Greinke and Wolf all pitched better at home this season and, with the exception of Wolf (who’s splits were actually the least severe), they struggled in St. Louis in this series. Marcum is different. Somehow Miller Park’s warm and advantageous embrace has eluded Shaun Marcum because his splits lean drastically in the other direction.

Marcum’s ERA is more than a run and a half higher at home than it is on the road: 4.81 to 2.21. He has given up nearly twice as many HR at home: 14 to 8. His WHIP (1.33/0.97), K/9 (6.64/7.56), K/BB (2.24/3.57), FIP (4.31/3.12) and xFIP (4.08/3.69) were all better on the road this season. Even if Shaun Marcum isn’t worn out, he has been a different pitcher at home all season.

Between Marcum’s home struggles and stretch collapse, the outlook is more dire for the Brewers than it was heading into Wolf’s Game 4 start. On the brink of elimination, the Brewers need Marcum even more than they needed Wolf yet Marcum seems less well equipped to provide the critical stop Milwaukee needs to send this series to a winner-take-all seventh game. If the Cardinals can continue their postseason trends of scoring early and often (18 runs in the first three innings of games so far this postseason), pulling their starting pitchers at the first sign of trouble (La Russa seems to have learned his lesson after Game 1) and extracting quality innings from the bullpen (5 ER in 32.2 IP after Game 1 of the NLDS), the NLCS will be over tonight. It will take a much different Marcum than the one that has shown up the last six weeks - or a baaaad outing by Edwin Jackson and/or the bullpen - to send things in a different direction.

Down the Last Bastion

Thu, 13 Oct 2011 03:47:00 -0400

A series of pitching duels it is not, at least not in terms of starting pitching. Through three games, the 2011 NLCS has been tough on the starters from both teams. In 28.1 innings pitched, St. Louis and Milwaukee starters have combined to allow 42 hits, 15 walks and 26 earned runs.

Even identifying the best among the bad outings is difficult. Do you go with Zack Greinke? He allowed 6 ER in Game 1, but struck out 6 and got the win, thanks to the Brewers’ potent offense. Maybe Edwin Jackson? He gave up only 2 ER in Game 2, but was pulled with one out in the fifth and Milwaukee threatening. Or perhaps it was Carpenter. He gave up 3 ER in 5 IP, good for the win, but he was shaky from the start and had trouble locating his cutter and his curveball all night.

Yovani Gallardo became the latest Brewer starter to falter, dimming Milwaukee’s hopes somewhat unless their offense can regain it’s Game 1 form. The obvious prescription for Milwaukee’s problems would be a return to the fabulous home-field advantage of Miller Park, but unless a Milwaukee starter can stop the bleeding, the series may never find its way back there.

The Cardinals have gotten to each Brewer’s pitcher in turn and only a Tony La Russa miscue (sticking with Jaime Garcia too long…again) and the resulting Brewers explosion (a 6-run fifth inning in Game 1) prevented this series from sitting at 3-0. Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf struggled in September and were awful in their respective NLDS starts. Greinke looked shaky against Arizona, as well. But now even Yovani Gallardo, strong in the second half and stellar in two NLDS starts, has proven mortal. He was an additional hit or walk away from being lifted in the first inning of tonight’s game. Granted, he settled down after that rocky first, but the Cardinals got to him and took the lead in the series.

Carpenter, of course, was only marginally better. It is pretty clear through three games that the chances of multiple quality pitchers’ duels the likes of Carpenter-Hallady and Garcia-Hamels in the Phillies-Cardinals series or Kennedy-Gallardo in Arizona-Milwaukee Game 5 are remote in this NLCS. The two offenses are just too potent. The blueprint for this series seems to be establish a lead (and preferably a sizeable one) in the early or middle innings, then keep the other team at bay. The depth of these two lineups and the strength of these two bullpens - coupled with the starting pitching woes seen thus far - reinforce the strategy of amassing as many runs as possible and then turning the ball over to the ‘pen at the first sign of trouble.

Whichever NL Central team prevails in this series, they are likely to meet a similarly-constructed opponent in the World Series. Assuming Texas holds on to advance, it features the same combination of a deep and potent offense, a steady bullpen and very-good-but-not-great starting pitching. It should make for an excellent World Series.

Now, for a brief look at the next two games. I’ll regroup on Saturday (assuming the weather continues to cooperate and the series is going back to Milwaukee) to break down the final two match-ups.

Game 4: Wolf vs. Lohse

As I said in yesterday’s post, this pairing feels like a push, if for no other reason than it features the two most-unpredictable starters.

The Brewers send Randy Wolf to the mound. Much like teammate Shaun Marcum, Wolf has struggled down the stretch and he was just plain bad in his last start (against Arizona in the NLDS). Allowing 7 ER on 8 hits, 3 BB and 2 HR in 3 IP, Wolf’s start was the worst of several rocky NLDS outings for Brewers’ starters.

Looking at his season numbers against the Cardinals, the results are mixed. In two starts at St. Louis - one in August and one in September - he allowed only 2 runs in 16 innings of work. The other three times he faced the Cardinals - twice in Milwaukee and once in St. Louis - produced a much different result. In those 16 IP, Wolf allowed 17 runs. For the season, he was 3-2 with a 5.34 ERA.

Lohse’s record against the Brewers this season looks much better. In three starts against Milwaukee, Lohse went 1-2, but with a 2.37 ERA. Lohse also pitched well down the stretch, notching a 1.37 ERA in 26.1 innings in September. Prior to that, however, Lohse had struggled mightily, posting monthly ERAs of 4.55 in June, 5.53 in July and 5.92 in August, leading Tony La Russa to skip or push back Lohse’s starts repeatedly as the Cards were climbing back into the Wild Card race.

Like Wolf, Lohse ran into trouble in the NLDS, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) in 5.1 IP in Game 1 against Philadelphia.

Recent iterations of the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitchers like Wolf, but the current lineup seems not to suffer the same affliction. There is a very real chance that Wolf, like Marcum, will give an encore of his NLDS performance and dig himself an early hole. If La Russa continues his recent trend of pulling his starter early as the situation dictates and takes Lohse out before he can get into serious trouble (as he should have done in Game 1 against the Phillies) the Cardinals have a fair chance to take this game.

Game 5: Greinke vs. Garcia

In yesterday’s post I talked about Gallardo and Carpenter’s home/road splits and how they might impact their performance in Game 3. Jaime Garcia’s splits are even more stark. In his career, he has put up a 2.37 ERA at home as compared with a 4.28 mark on the road. His splits this season are still more extreme: 2.55 at home vs. 4.61 on the road. If there is anyone who should benefit from playing in his home park (aside from everyone on the Milwaukee Brewers), it is Jaime Garcia. Aside from a single mistake to Ben Francisco, Garcia’s Game 3 NLDS start (at home) was very strong. Meanwhile, his Game 1 NLCS start (on the road) was disastrous. Pitching Game 5 in St. Louis should give Garcia a better chance to win.

For Milwaukee, Zack Greinke is no stranger to splits himself. Away from Miller Park this season, Greinke posted a 4.70 ERA (vs. 3.13 at home). Milwaukee won all 15 of Greinke’s home starts - plus two more in the playoffs - while the team was under .500 in his starts on the road (6-7). As much as the Cardinals want Garcia making his next NLCS start in Busch Stadium, they want the same from Greinke. Greinke is an excellent pitcher and he could just as easily throw a gem in Game 5 as continue his playoff struggles. Still, the Cardinals undoubtedly prefer to face him in St. Louis.

Again, my thinking is that La Russa has learned his lesson as far as pulling his starters and this goes double for Garcia. Both of Garcia’s postseason appearances have fallen apart rapidly and anything but the quickest of hooks from La Russa will be a surprise if Jaime starts to struggle.

Looking at the match-ups, it’s easy to make a case for the Cardinals to take both of the next two games and wrap the series in St. Louis. I am sure that just as compelling a case can be made to favor the Brewers in each. Given that I predicted the Cardinals in 6, it wouldn’t do to give both of these games to the Redbirds, as much as my nerves would welcome the series concluding before it returns to the terrordome in Milwaukee.

I think the Cardinals continue their winning ways tomorrow night in Game 4, Greinke and the Brew Crew win Game 5 to send the series back to Milwaukee, but the Cardinals finish things in Game 6 by once again exploiting a vulnerable Shaun Marcum and the Brewers’ middle relief.

Check back this weekend for further covearge.

Picking the NLCS

Wed, 12 Oct 2011 03:14:00 -0400

After weighing the first two games of what looks to be a relatively even and high-scoring series, I am ready to make my prediction for the NLCS. Ok, I was actually ready two days ago, after the gut-punch that was Game 1. Shortly after the Brewers closed out their 9-6 come-from-behind win in the series opener, I emailed my good friend and pseudo-editor Dan with cautious optimism. I’ll let Sunday-me take it away:

…Looking on the bright side, though, it is a long series and we got smoked in Game 1 of the NLDS even worse (11-6). I think the Cards need to come out strong in Game 2 tomorrow, take advantage of Marcum (horrendous in the NLDS) and hopefully get another strong start from Edwin Jackson. If we can leave Milwaukee with a split, I like our chances. Then we’ll have Carp in Game 3, vs. Gallardo. The Cards have actually done well against him this season and Carp has given us two outstanding outings the past few weeks (I’m ignoring the short-rest start given what he did in Game 5). Then Lohse-Wolf in Game 4 is a push, Garcia in Game 5 has pitched much better at home then Jackson and Carp again in 6 & 7 if necessary. Did I mention the Crew is not the same team on the road? I remain confident in spite of today’s let down…

We all know how things played out in Game 2. Jackson wasn’t particularly strong, but he was good enough and Shaun Marcum was terrible. The Cardinals’ offense was electric and they made a statement by rebounding from a demoralizing Game 1 loss and dampening the Miller Park lovefest on Tuesday.

Having secured the split in Milwaukee, I feel sufficiently confident to go on the record that I think the Cardinals win in 6 to advance to their third World Series in the past eight years.

The difficult thing about about trying to project a series when it involves your favorite team is twofold. First, it is difficult to be objective. There are optimistic fans and there are pessimistic fans. There are even realistic fans, but when it comes to their team almost every fan harbors some hope or doubt that shapes or informs their prediction. Second, it is difficult not to be superstitious. Even being a relatively rational fan, I can’t help but fear that my hubris in picking my own team to advance to the World Series will result in precisely the opposite outcome.

As an offering to the baseball gods, I intend to breakdown each match up in a much less succinct fashion than I did in my email to Dan. I had hoped to include them all in the same post, but between block-quoting my own email and getting carried away with breaking down tomorrow night’s pairing, I ran out of time and energy.

For now, the baseball gods will have to settle for a preview of Game 3, to be followed shortly by analysis of the probables for the rest of the series.

With thanks to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Fangraphs and MLB.com and without further ado…

Game 3: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter

Yovani Gallardo has had a good season as a pitcher. He’s also had two strong postseason starts in the NLDS against Arizona, allowing just two runs in 14 innings pitched. He has not, however, enjoyed much success to-date against the St. Louis Cardinals, either this season or in his career.

In four starts this season against the Cardinals, Gallardo is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA, having allowed 16 runs in 23.2 innings on 8 HR. His worst outing of the four was actually the only one in Milwaukee (4.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR), but overall his ERA on the road was over a run higher this season (4.05 compared to 3.00 in roughly the same number of innings).

Nor have Gallardo’s struggles against the Cardinals been merely a recent phenomenon. In 11 career appearances against St. Louis, he is 1-7 with a 5.66 ERA. His career home/road splits also mirror his season mark. In 368.2 home innings, he has a career 3.22 ERA vs. a 4.06 mark in 343.2 innings on the road.

Carpenter vs. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been more of a mixed bag. He was 2-2 this season with a 3.68 ERA, 6-6 lifetime and 4.58 in 15 appearances. Carpenter, however, has been fantastic in two home starts against the Brewers this season, allowing only two runs in 17 innings. Carpenter, like Gallardo, has been worse on the road both this season and in his career (3.85 ERA to 3.05 at home in 2011; 3.65 to 2.71 at home in his career). The difference is that Carpenter is actually pitching at home in Game 3.

Of course, there are always the questions of sample size and how regular season performance translates to the postseason. Still, in a close match up, give me the guy with 11 postseason starts under his belt (vs. 3 for Gallardo) coming off a 3-hit shutout of the presumptive National League champions in Game 5 of the NLDS.

Marketing the Moneyball Movie, part 3: The Moneyball Premiere

Tue, 20 Sep 2011 05:33:00 -0400

Full disclosure: I might be in the Moneyball movie. Last July I answered the call, did my duty as a baseball fan and as an American and spent a long night as an extra at the Oakland Coliseum during the filming of Moneyball. So I’ve been excited for this film for a long time. Not so excited, mind you, that I considered the possibility of it premiering in Oakland until less than a month ago, but excited nonetheless.

Then over the past month, the buzz began to build. Previews, posters, mentions in articles and on podcasts; Moneyball was all around. Then, between the Toronto International Film Festival and various press screenings and sneak previews, it seemed that everyone who writes about baseball had already seen the film and dissected it a good week before the official premiere at the Paramount Theatre.

Keith Law alone wrote a full review of the film and then discussed his review and a response it elicited from Michael Lewis on no fewer than three Baseball Today podcasts. It felt as if the world had digested Moneyball and moved along, stealing some of Oakland’s thunder in the process.

I should have known better. It took all of two seconds to get caught up in the excitement of the premiere (albeit from the median of Broadway Avenue - the mob was not welcome on the Paramount side of the street). With a steady stream of traffic passing both in front of and behind me, I hunkered down with my fellow gawkers and set myself to the task of documenting Oakland’s next great public moment. This is what I saw.

The diehards were well represented. A group of fans decked out in their StAy t-shirts staked out a parking spot (beginning at 1 PM they said) directly across the street from the main entrance of the Paramount. They hung a banner reading “Don’t take our A’s away” to remind the who’s who across the street that we can celebrate the team’s past but we need to secure its future where it belongs - in Oakland. You can imagine the reception Lew Wolff received from this very vocal contingent.

The stars were out in force from cast members to team ownership and management to current and former players to local and national media. Brad Pitt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Chris Pratt, Stephen Bishop, Billy Beane, Ron Washington, Scott Hatteberg, David Justice, Andrew Bailey, Trevor Cahill, Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, Hideki Matsui, Cliff Pennington, Michael Lewis, Mychael Urban, Ray Ratto and many more were spotted and hailed by the throng in the median and on the other side of Broadway from the theater. But the true star of the show for me was a man who went practically unnoticed amidst all the activity, Joe Posnanski.

I have been an avid reader of Posnanski’s for several years now and consider him to be one of the most insightful and gifted sportswriters working. When I heard that he would be on site for the Moneyball premiere, I immediately reprioritized who to be on the look out for. Within a few minutes I spotted him (it was infinitely easier than I had anticipated). Standing by himself and observing the bustle around him, he seemed like he would have had a second to greet a fan if not for the tight security in front of the theater and the adjoining mock stadium set up for the red carpet. Given this barrier, a simple casual intrusion would not do. I had to resort to slightly more creative means of saying hello to Posnanski.

The aforementioned diehards had brought along their flags, some beers and the familiar “Let’s go Oakland, clap-clap clap-clap-clap” chant. For the purposes of articulating their support or disdain for various personalities on hand, the chant was modified. Iterations included “Ron-nie Wa-ash” for Washington, “Lew Wolff su-ucks” for Wolff and “leather sho-orts” for a young woman in leather shorts. I knew what I had to do.

I went to the lead diehard and enlisted his help. I said, “you see that guy over there in the jacket? His name is Joe Posnanski and he is an outstanding sportswriter. Can you guys help me out with a Joe Posnanski chant?” After confirming the correct pronunciation of Posnanski’s name, we launched into it. “Joe Pos-nan-ski, clap-clap clap-clap-clap, Joe Pos-nan-ski, clap-clap clap-clap-clap.” Posnanski looked our way, went a little red, then smiled and waved as we chanted on. I turned to the lead diehard and said “I bet nobody ever recognizes that guy. We just made his day.” That may have been an exaggeration, but the diehards were in no position to argue; they had moved on to a new target for their chants…or maybe back to the girl in the leather shorts.

Exaggeration or not, I got what I came for (and my day was made in the process) and the rest was just icing. It certainly didn’t hurt that I later got to observe from afar as Posnanski seemingly talked shop with Michael Lewis for awhile before heading in.

Once people began filing in, the focus of the crowd turned to spotting Brad Pitt. Pitt’s whereabouts consumed the majority of conversation and drew a group of people that would fail to rise even to the modest standard of casual baseball fans. But those who read Moneyball and those who read Entertainment Weekly alike were rewarded with a brief glimpse of Brad before he went into the theater through a side entrance.

When Pitt disappeared as quickly as he had arrived and it became clear he would not be seen again, the onlookers began to disperse. After soaking in the atmosphere for a few minutes longer, I too took my leave, but not before granting Jack London George’s (new to me, too) request for a photo.

Thanks Moneyball, indeed.

Stray thoughts:

- Pretty sure this kid wins the prize for best hair at the premiere:

- We wish you were still in Oakland, too, Ronnie Wash:

- Godzilla!

- This was a big day for The Baseball Diaspora. Our first on location coverage of a major media event, our first live tweets, our first Joe Posnanski sighting. My thanks goes out to my colleagues Dan, for sharing the experience via phone from across the country and Louw, for joining me at the scene and making the live tweeting a reality.

- Louw and I also learned just how underdeveloped our paparazzi skills truly are. “Paparazzi-in-training” a fellow Oakland resident dubbed us after my camera froze while trying to snap a picture of the elusive Pitt. By way of example of our general incompetence, this is the best I could do as far as capturing Philip Seymour Hoffman and his double t-shirt look:

- Even after the press and personalities had cleared out, the rabble couldn’t be trusted to come across the street to see the interview area up close, so I settled for this shot:

Marketing the Moneyball Movie, part 2: The Giveaway

Mon, 19 Sep 2011 18:17:00 -0400

I spent enough time in the last post excoriating the A’s for the uninspired design of the the t-shirt they planned to give away on “Moneyball Day” at O.co Coliseum. This time around, I’ll keep it positive. Yes the t-shirt turned out to be just as bland and low budget as it looked in the advance photos. And yes it turned out to be even slightly worse, the color being a light gray heather instead of what appeared (again, in the online photos) to be more of a light gunmetal color. See for yourself:

Projected:

Actual:

Other than the shirt, which in all fairness is at the very least a professionally-made garment that can shelter one from the elements, the A’s did a pretty serviceable job of capitalizing on the Moneyball movie on Sunday. Here’s the rundown:

The Moneyball movie brand was conspicuously displayed up on the scoreboard and down on the field:

Moneyball movie paraphernalia was available for purchase or as prizes and the A’s worked the schwag into their fan appreciation giveaways, eventually handing out four passes to tonight’s premiere at the Paramount. Previews played on the scoreboard screen and the artist formerly known as Jonah Hill (one of the film’s stars) threw out the ceremonial first pitch with a great deal of enthusiasm.

Hill, in fact, was all over the place. He threw out the first pitch flanked by fellow cast members Stephen Bishop (David Justice), Casey Bond (Chad Bradford) and Chris Pratt (Scott Hatteberg). The real Scott Hatteberg caught Hill’s pitch to the delight of the crowd. Hill then stopped by the A’s radio broadcast in the fourth inning, stopped by the TV broadcast at some point and participated in the non sequitur of a promotion being staged by Bay Area company Quirky. I get it, I get it: Billy Beane reinvented baseball, now Quirky reinvents the bicycle! Still. Speaking of non sequiturs…Josh Outman!

The stirrups? With the gold sanis and the gold jerseys? Amazing.

Tonight, The Baseball Diaspora hits the red carpet from (across the street from) Oakland’s historic Paramount Theatre where the Moneyball movie will get its international premiere. When I drove by the Paramount on Sunday morning Moneyball wasn’t even on the marquee, so we’ll see how Oakland turns it out tonight.

Marketing the Moneyball Movie, part 1

Thu, 08 Sep 2011 06:42:00 -0400

Say this for the Oakland A’s - they consistently put together a top notch promotional calendar.

They may have fielded less-than-competitive teams the past five years. They may play in one of baseball’s worst stadiums. They may not have averaged even 20,000 fans per game since 2008. But as someone who takes promotions seriously, I can confirm that year in and year out, the A’s rank high when it comes to rewarding the fans that do come to the ballpark.

The secret to the A’s success is composed of four ingredients: desirability, accessibility, frequency and adjustability. Let’s briefly take a look at each:

Desirability: The first test of a good promotion is whether a fan would actually want the giveaway. Fans do not go out of their way for a team-branded reusable grocery bag (you heard me San Diego) or a free loaf of bread (perhaps the most bizarre promotion I’ve encountered, at some now-forgotten minor league park). Every year since I arrived in Oakland, I have made it out to additional A’s games specifically because of the promotions.

Accessibility: While the A’s aren’t quite the Dodgers (who typically give bobbleheads out to 25,000 or more fans), giving out 10-15,000 of anything at an A’s game usually gives you pretty good odds. What’s more, you can typically show up 30-45 minutes before game time and still get most giveaways. Only once, on the day they retired Rickey Henderson’s number and actually sold out the Coliseum, did I actually show up early and fail to sniff the giveaway (Rickey Henderson replica jersey).

Frequency: Some teams treat promotions like trips to the dentist and begrudgingly schedule one every six months, a year, two years…who’s counting? The A’s, while not leading the league in promotions, keep a steady stream of giveaways coming throughout the season.

Adjustability: This term may not capture quite what I mean. Perhaps adaptability would be more apt. The thing is the A’s have demonstrated the ability to add or modify promotions in-season, something I have rarely witnessed among the other 29 teams. To be fair, I don’t follow 27 of those teams quite as closely as I do the A’s (I obviously keep close tabs on my Cardinals along with the nearby Giants), but my impression is still that the A’s are willing to adjust their promotions when something special happens.

Take, for example, Dallas Braden’s perfect game last year. Many teams may have had a ceremony or given away a commemorative ticket. The A’s had a week-long celebration, the highlight of which was a pretty fetching t-shirt commemorating Braden’s accomplishment. They then closed out the season by giving out a beautiful bobblehead of Braden pumping his fist after recording the final out.

Of course, Braden is a local kid who threw his perfect game on Mother’s Day (his mother died of cancer). Maybe any club with that kind of story to work with would have capitalized on it the way the A’s did. Even so, the way the A’s turned a game that just over 12,000 fans attended into a season-long event was impressive.

Given the organization’s response to Braden’s perfect game last season, that it would move to capitalize on the publicity and hype surrounding the Moneyball movie came as no surprise. The manner in which the team chose to do so, however, was surprising. After the deft and professional manner in which the A’s promoted Braden’s perfect game, how could their promotion of Moneyball come of so uninspired?

Last Friday, an email arrived in my inbox from the Oakland A’s announcing a Moneyball promotion. So far, so good. The first part of the promotion is a ticket offer where you buy a Field Level ticket to the game in question (9/18) and receive a pass to go see the movie. Fair enough. In addition, the first 10,000 fans receive a free Moneyball t-shirt. How could you go wrong?

Here’s how:

Excuse me? Did Charlie Finley himself ride Charlie O. up out of his grave to design this lemon? It certainly conforms to his principles as far as frugality is concerned. At least I hope so. The only possible explanation I can come up with for how this design came to term goes something like this:

Scene: Two seventh graders sit in the kitchen of one of their homes working on a Moneyball t-shirt project due the following day. They have completely forgotten about it until now.

Seventh Grader #1: I forgot all about this project.

Seventh Grader #2: Me, too. We better throw something together, though. Ms. Abernathy takes a letter grade off for each day it’s late.

SG1: Ok, well I have this nondescript gray t-shirt, will that work?

SG2: Yeah! Gray it is. Oooh - I found a picture of a baseball online. Moneyball is about baseball, right?

SG1: I’m pretty sure it is. That’s good. We’re almost done. Hmmm - what about this font?

SG2: I don’t know, it doesn’t have a lot of character.

SG1: Well, that’s the free font - anything else we have to pay for.

SG2: On second thought, that font looks good. That about does it, right?

SG1: Right! Oh, wait...what color should the letters be?

SG2: Well, green is the color of money. It is Moneyball after all, right?

SG1: Genius! Slap a PepsiMax logo on the arm and let’s go play outside!

Fin

Maybe licensing issues prevented a less-generic design. Maybe time constraints limited creativity (not likely given the 10-day turnaround on the Braden t-shirts). Maybe turnover in the marketing department is to blame. Who knows?

One thing’s for sure, the A’s missed a major opportunity here. Moneyball has become a widely-anticipated film and the A’s are at the center of the story. This was a ready-made chance to promote and market the team and draw casual fans out to the ballpark. The movie filmed over a year ago (last July - I was there!) giving the A’s plenty of lead time to plan for this. In hindsight it’s more than a little surprising that this is the first (and apparently only) Moneyball promotion. That that one promotion is already an afterthought is even worse.

It so happens that Justin Verlander is scheduled to start that Sunday against the A’s, so I was already planning to be on hand at the Coliseum. Since I’m going anyway, you can bet I will get there early to procure one of these snooze-fests for myself.

Check back here on Sunday 9/18 to see if the shirts turned out to be as bland and unsightly as they look in the picture. Check back again a day or two later to hear how the Moneyball t-shirt went over at the Moneyball premiere at the Paramount Theatre on Monday 9/19, outside of which I will be hanging out and gawking. How can all the celebrities help but notice me when they see me swaddled in a garment that pops the way this Moneyball t-shirt does?